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NCR market desk
The numbers a fund reads before it reads a brochure: price moves, unsold stock and time to clear, absorption, yields, and the forecasts behind the airport story. Each row carries its source and date. Updated 16 Oct 2026.
Every row carries its source and date. Where two reputable sources disagree, both are shown; the disagreement is itself the finding.
Price per sq ft and the year-on-year move
The first number smart money asks for, and the one where sources disagree most. Weighted averages move with the mix of what sold, not only with prices.
| Metric | Value | Change / note | Source, date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ghaziabad, average price | Rs 9,210 / sq ft | -17% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| Ghaziabad, weighted average price | not stated | +14% YoY (Jan-Sep 2026) | Knight Frank India, via BW Businessworld2026-10 |
| Noida, average price | Rs 25,805 / sq ft | +61% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| Noida, weighted average price | not stated | +7% YoY (Jan-Sep 2026) | Knight Frank India, via BW Businessworld2026-10 |
| Greater Noida, average price | Rs 12,826 / sq ft | +18% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| Greater Noida, weighted average price | not stated | +11% YoY (Jan-Sep 2026) | Knight Frank India, via BW Businessworld2026-10 |
| Gurugram, average price | Rs 21,538 / sq ft | +6% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| 50-city house price index (NHB RESIDEX), composite | index | +5.0% YoY (Oct-Dec 2025) | National Housing Bank, RESIDEX press release2026-03 |
How we read it
Kotak's Ghaziabad figure falls 17% while Knight Frank's rises 14% for an overlapping period. One is an average of what transacted, the other a weighted index; a shift toward cheaper stock selling pulls the first down. Neither tells you what a specific tower trades at. Our project pages do, on a date.
Unsold inventory and time to clear
Months of supply is the number a fund reads before price. A corridor with years of unsold stock does not re-rate, whatever the launch brochure says.
| Metric | Value | Change / note | Source, date |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCR unsold residential inventory | 218 million sq ft | +7% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| NCR time to clear at current sales pace | about 2.3 years | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 | |
| Ghaziabad unsold inventory | 31.1 million sq ft | of which 11.9 million sq ft in stalled projects | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| NCR available inventory, units | 89,086 units (end Q2 2026) | flat vs 89,005 a year earlier | via Zee Business2026-07 |
| NCR new launches, Q2 2026 | down about 40% YoY | sales outpaced launches | via Zee Business2026-07 |
How we read it
Ghaziabad carries about a seventh of NCR's unsold stock and more than a third of that is stalled. That is why its averages fall while Noida's rise: the city is still digesting 2012-2016 launches. Delivered towers in Ghaziabad trade on their own merits; the average is not your flat.
Sales volume and where it is going
Absorption tells you whether a corridor has buyers at today's price, which matters more for exit than any forecast.
| Metric | Value | Change / note | Source, date |
|---|---|---|---|
| NCR residential sales, Jan-Sep 2026 | 35,574 units | -11% YoY; decline concentrated in Gurugram | Knight Frank India, via BW Businessworld2026-10 |
| NCR sales by area | 23.5 million sq ft | -27% YoY | Kotak Institutional Equities, via Business Today2026-08-24 |
| Share of NCR sales, Q2 2026 | Gurugram 43%, Noida 36%, Ghaziabad 18% | via Zee Business2026-07 | |
| Noida and Greater Noida new launches | 2,140 units | -72% YoY | via BW Businessworld2026 |
How we read it
Fewer launches with flat inventory means the market is clearing old stock rather than adding new. For a buyer that is good for delivered resale and bad for launch-rate flips: the launch premium has less new supply to compete with, but also fewer buyers chasing it.
Rental yield
Gross yield is rent for a year divided by price. Indian residential yields are low by global standards, so the return case here is capital, not income; know that before you model.
| Metric | Value | Change / note | Source, date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gurugram gross rental yield | 4.1% | Q1 2024 (last firm, dated figure) | ANAROCK, via Business Standard2024-04-29 |
| Noida gross rental yield | 3.7% | Q1 2024 (last firm, dated figure) | ANAROCK, via Business Standard2024-04-29 |
| Noida Sector 150, gross yield | about 3.5% to 4% (indicative) | 2026 secondary sources, no disclosed method | property blogs; treat as indicative2026 |
| Cities with the sharpest yield improvement, 2019 to Q2 2026 | Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Delhi: +100 bps | Noida and Gurugram led capital appreciation instead | ANAROCK, via Zee Business2026 |
How we read it
At 3.5% to 4% gross, before maintenance, tax and vacancy, NCR residential does not pay you to wait. The yield calculator on this page shows what a specific flat returns at the rent you can actually get; put the net figure next to a fixed deposit before you call it an investment.
Infrastructure catalysts and the forecasts attached to them
Every NCR pitch in 2026 ends with Jewar. Forecasts are not outcomes; here is who said what, so you can decide how much is already in the price.
| Metric | Value | Change / note | Source, date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noida International Airport (Jewar) corridor, forecast capital value growth | 15% to 20% CAGR over 4 to 5 years | notes the airport is already partly priced in | Colliers, via Outlook Money2026 |
| Noida airport corridor, forecast price rise by 2027 | plots +28%, apartments +22% | apartments 'nearly tripled' over the prior five years | Square Yards, via The Realty Today2026 |
| Industry estimate, property values near Jewar | up to 20% a year | industry voices, promotional | via IANS2026-06-15 |
How we read it
Colliers' line is the one to keep: partly priced in. Our Sector 150 pages show a launch at Rs 17,000 to 22,000 per sq ft for 2031 possession; that price already assumes the airport. The question is what is left after it opens.
Questions investors ask
Ghaziabad prices gir rahe hain ya badh rahe hain?
Depends on the measure. Kotak Institutional Equities' average transacted price fell 17% year on year to Rs 9,210 per sq ft (August 2026); Knight Frank's weighted average rose 14% over January to September 2026. The city is clearing a large unsold and stalled stock, which drags the simple average while delivered towers hold. Price the tower, not the city.
NCR mein unsold inventory kitni hai?
About 218 million sq ft as of August 2026 per Kotak Institutional Equities, roughly 2.3 years of sales at the current pace; Ghaziabad alone holds 31.1 million sq ft, 11.9 million of it stalled.
Noida mein rental yield kitna hai?
The last firm dated figure is ANAROCK's 3.7% gross for Noida and 4.1% for Gurugram in the March 2024 quarter. 2026 secondary sources put Sector 150 at roughly 3.5% to 4% gross without a disclosed method.
Jewar airport se prices kitne badhenge?
Colliers forecasts 15% to 20% a year in capital values over four to five years near the airport and says it is partly priced in already; Square Yards projects plots +28% and apartments +22% by 2027. These are forecasts from parties with an interest in the market.
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